Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
