Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
